MARKETS & TRENDS

Lead: On February 17, 2026, the Brazilian Federal Police (PF) conducted a large-scale special operation, during which four search warrants were executed in three states of the country. Four public officials are under suspicion — three from the Federal Revenue Service (Receita Federal) and one from the Federal Data Processing Service (Serpro), who are accused of illegal access and subsequent dissemination of confidential financial information about the ministers of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the Attorney General of the Republic Paulo Goneta, and their relatives. The operation was conducted at the request of the Attorney General's Office (PGR) with the sanction of STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes. Detailed Analysis Scope and Methodology of the Investigation The investigation revealed multiple illegal accesses to the tax service systems, resulting in subsequent leaks of confidential information. According to an audit conducted by Receita Federal itself, access blocks were found that had no functional justification from the responsible services. According to information from PF sources, the investigation covers the analysis of data from approximately 100 individuals related to the STF ministers, including their children, spouses, parents, and siblings, which requires checking about 8,000 procedures in 80 different systems. The operation included searches in the cities of São José do Rio Preto, Garuhapé (São Paulo), Salvador (Bahia), and the cities of Rio de Janeiro. During the execution of the warrants, investigators seized mobile phones and other evidence. It is important to note that the buildings of Receita Federal itself were not the target of the special operation, and no arrests were made. Preventive Measures Applied Minister de Moraes established a set of strict precautionary measures against the suspects. These include: electronic monitoring via wearable bracelets, immediate suspension from their positions, cancellation of all passports with a ban on leaving the country, and disclosure of banking, tax, and telematic information. These measures are being taken simultaneously for all four suspects and are particularly severe for public officials. Position and Response of the Authorities The Supreme Federal Court, in its official statement, characterized the discovered facts as “multiple illegal accesses” and noted that the leaks of information were carried out with the aim of creating “artificial suspicions that are difficult to dispel.” Receita Federal stated that prior to the operation, it initiated its own preliminary check based on a request from the STF dated January 12, 2026, which followed media publications about suspicions of leaks. The service emphasized that Receita's systems are fully traceable and that any deviations can be identified, analyzed, and punished at the criminal level. Impact on BRICS This investigation touches on fundamental principles of governance and transparency in one of the leading members of the BRICS bloc. Brazil, as the largest economy in the group, must demonstrate high standards of law compliance and protection of constitutional norms. The data leak scandal from the tax services presents an internal challenge for the justice system and bureaucracy of Brazil. In the context of strengthening BRICS positions in the global order, the scandal may serve as a reason for criticism from Western partners regarding the quality of governance and respect for individual rights in the alliance countries. At the same time, a successful investigation and holding the guilty accountable will demonstrate the Brazilian judicial system's ability to self-purify and respect the rule of law. For BRICS as a whole, this event has no direct impact on joint strategies, but it underscores the importance of coordination among government structures of different countries in addressing data security and financial information issues within the framework of intergovernmental interaction. Forecast and Risks Probable Outcomes Based on the content of the warrants and the collected evidence, there is a high probability of bringing the suspects to criminal responsibility under articles related to violations of the confidentiality of tax information and abuse of office. The investigation is at an advanced stage: PF reports are expected to be sent to the STF in the coming days. Risks of the Investigation The main risks are associated with the possibility of accusations of political motivation behind the operation, given the high profile of the individuals and positions involved. The defense of the suspects may challenge the compliance with procedural norms and the proportionality of the measures applied. Additionally, there is a risk of revealing further violations during the court proceedings, which could expand the scope of the case. Long-term Consequences The outcome of this case will set an important precedent in Brazil regarding punishment for violations of the confidentiality of public data. Regardless of the outcome of the investigation, it will lead to strengthening access control systems in tax authorities and raising standards of digital security in the government apparatus. Summary The operation of the Federal Police of Brazil investigating the leak of tax data represents a significant event in the field of protection of state information and the rule of law. The investigation covers four public officials suspected of illegal access to confidential financial information about the country's top officials. The application of strict preventive measures and thorough conduct of the investigation indicate the seriousness of the charges. A successful conclusion of the case will strengthen trust in the Brazilian judicial system and demonstrate the country's commitment to the principles of transparency and accountability within the international community.

Lead: Lowering cholesterol levels in the blood is a key factor in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Scientific studies confirm that certain foods rich in fiber, antioxidants, and healthy fats can effectively lower LDL (bad cholesterol) and raise HDL (good cholesterol) levels. Such foods include oatmeal, cocoa, cashews, tomatoes, legumes, avocados, and leafy greens. Detailed Analysis Mechanisms of Action of Foods Cholesterol-lowering foods work in several ways. First, soluble fiber (beta-glucans in oats, pectin in apples) binds with cholesterol in the digestive system and removes it from the body before it enters the bloodstream. Second, antioxidants (flavonoids in cocoa, lycopene in tomatoes) prevent the oxidation of fat cells by free radicals. Third, unsaturated fats (in fish, nuts, and avocados) help lower triglyceride and total cholesterol levels. Main Categories of Foods Grains and Seeds: Oatmeal, due to its high beta-glucan content, significantly lowers LDL cholesterol levels and raises HDL. Flaxseed is rich in omega-3 fatty acids, which prevent blood clot formation and improve heart health. It is recommended to grind or crush the seeds, as their shell is resistant to stomach acid. Fish and Seafood: Cold-water fish (salmon, tuna, trout) contains omega-3 fatty acids that lower triglycerides and total cholesterol. According to nutritionists, the unsaturated fats in fish make the blood more fluid and reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases. Nuts and Oilseeds: Cashews contain polyunsaturated fats and antioxidants, lowering LDL while simultaneously raising HDL. Walnuts and other oilseeds contain arginine—a vital vasodilator that reduces the risk of heart disease. Fruits: Apples are rich in pectin—a soluble fiber that hinders fat absorption. Oranges contain flavonoids that limit lipid absorption in the intestines. Guava and berries contain antioxidants (vitamins C and A) that prevent the oxidation of fat cells. Vegetables: Cabbage, kohlrabi, and leafy greens are rich in fiber that binds cholesterol in the intestines and promotes its excretion with feces. Artichokes contain special fibers resistant to enzyme action, which lower triglyceride and cholesterol levels. Tomatoes contain lycopene and vitamin C with antioxidant properties. Legumes: Black beans, lentils, and chickpeas contain soluble fiber that binds with cholesterol in the digestive system and removes it before it enters the bloodstream. The recommended daily intake is 3 tablespoons of cooked legumes. Sources of Healthy Fats: Extra virgin olive oil raises HDL and lowers LDL. Soy products (tofu, soy milk) contain plant protein and can lower LDL when replacing animal fats. Spices and Supplements: Ginger, according to studies from 2008 and 2014, can lower total cholesterol, triglycerides, and LDL while raising HDL. Cocoa contains flavonoids with antioxidant effects that improve blood flow and prevent the formation of atherosclerotic plaques. Impact on Public Health Practice Incorporating these foods into the diet is an accessible and cost-effective way to prevent cardiovascular diseases. It is important to note that effectiveness depends on regular consumption and replacing high-cholesterol foods (fatty meats, butter, trans fats) with recommended ones. Individualized nutrition under the guidance of a qualified dietitian ensures better results and takes into account the unique characteristics of each person's body. Prognosis and Risks Although cholesterol-lowering helper foods show proven effectiveness, they should be considered as part of a comprehensive approach that includes physical activity, stress management, and, if necessary, medication. The risk is that people may rely solely on dietary changes without medical supervision, especially when cardiovascular diseases have already been diagnosed. Additionally, effectiveness varies depending on individual factors: genetic predisposition, overall lifestyle, and baseline cholesterol levels. SummaryIt is scientifically proven that soluble fiber, antioxidants, and healthy unsaturated fats in oats, fish, nuts, fruits, vegetables, and legumes effectively lower LDL levels and prevent the development of cardiovascular diseases. Regularly including these foods in the diet while following specialist recommendations forms the basis of dietary prevention of high cholesterol.

Lead: On February 14, 2026, Brazilian skier Lucas Pinheiro Braathen won a historic gold medal in the giant slalom at the Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina, becoming the first athlete from South America to win a medal at the Winter Olympics. The 25-year-old athlete's victory over Swiss favorite Marco Odermatt (by 0.58 seconds) ended years of dominance in alpine skiing by a single country and opened a new chapter in the development of winter sports in Latin America. Detailed Analysis Path to Triumph: Lucas Pinheiro Braathen, the son of a Norwegian father and a Brazilian mother, competing under the Brazilian flag, was ranked second in the world in giant slalom before the Olympics. On his way to gold, he won three silver medals at World Cup events in the current season, demonstrating his growing competitiveness at the highest level. Technique of Victory: In his first run, Braathen clocked a time of 1 minute 13.92 seconds and led the standings with an advantage of almost one second over Odermatt. In the second run, the Swiss temporarily took first place, but the Brazilian responded with excellent technique and finished with a total time of 2 minutes 25 seconds, securing the victory. Marco Odermatt won silver, while his compatriot Loic Meillard took bronze. Context of Swiss Dominance: Odermatt arrived at the Olympics as the number one in the world in all his disciplines and was defending his Olympic champion title. However, at these Games, he won three medals without gold: silver in giant slalom, silver in the team combined event, and bronze in super-G, finishing fourth in downhill. This marked the first time that the Swiss alpine skiing machine faced a serious challenge at the Olympics. Historical Significance for Brazil: Braathen's achievement ended a 74-year gap between attempts by South American countries to win medals at the Winter Olympics. The last significant result was recorded in 1928 when Argentina finished fourth in bobsleigh at the St. Moritz Games. Braathen's gold medal not only surpasses this result but also becomes the only podium finish for South America at the current Olympics. Impact on BRICS Braathen's success holds symbolic significance for Brazil as a member of BRICS and demonstrates the diversification of sports achievements in developing economies. While BRICS is traditionally associated with summer Olympic sports, where member countries achieve significant success, winning gold at the Winter Olympics indicates growing investments in infrastructure and athlete training across a range of sports disciplines. This could serve as an impetus for other developing countries in the region to develop winter sports and attract investments in alpine skiing. For Brazil as an economic and sporting power, this event strengthens its position not only in traditional sports but also in niche Olympic disciplines. Forecast and Risks Short-term Prospects: Braathen's gold medal win will increase interest in winter sports in Brazil and may attract government funding for the development of alpine skiing, which has previously been under-prioritized. However, in the upcoming rounds of the Olympics, the athlete faced challenges: in slalom, he fell in his first attempt and was eliminated from contention, highlighting the volatility of high-level sports. Long-term Risks and Opportunities: A single success in giant slalom may not lead to sustainable development of winter sports in Brazil without systemic investments in sports infrastructure. Brazil's climatic conditions (lack of natural mountains and snow cover) require the creation of artificial training centers, which is economically costly. Additionally, future medals will depend on the availability of talent, athletes' readiness for long-term training, and access to specialized equipment. Switzerland and other traditional skiing powers maintain a structural advantage due to geography and a century-long history of sports development. Challenge to the Status Quo: Odermatt's defeat may prompt the Swiss Ski Federation to reassess training tactics and analyze the competitive landscape. The emergence of a strong competitor from an unexpected region indicates the globalization of elite sports and the increasing mobility of athletic talent. Summary: Lucas Pinheiro Braathen's historic gold medal at the Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina 2026 represents a breakthrough achievement for Brazil and all of South America. Victory over Swiss dominator Marco Odermatt not only demonstrates the rising level of competition in alpine skiing but also opens new opportunities for the development of winter sports in developing BRICS countries. However, sustainable development of this success will require significant investments in infrastructure and athlete training systems. For Brazil, this achievement serves as proof that with the right support and talent, it is possible to compete even in sports traditionally dominated by European countries.

Event Essence: On February 15, 2026, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva attends the parade of the samba school "Acadêmicos de Niterói" in Rio de Janeiro, which dedicated its performance to his life journey. This is the school's debut in the top league of the Grupo Especial carnival, and it opens the Sunday parades, starting its performance at 21:45 Brasília time with the theme "On the Top of the Mulungu Tree, Hope is Born: Lula, the Worker of Brazil". Detailed Analysis Samba School and Its Context: Acadêmicos de Niterói was founded on March 26, 2018, and only in 2026 did it get promoted to the top league of the Grupo Especial after its performance in the Série Ouro. This achievement represents a significant leap for the young organization, which now performs on the same stage as traditional giant schools like Mangueira, Portela, and Imperatriz Leopoldinense. The school chose the honor of opening the Sunday parades — a prestigious position in the carnival calendar structure. Artistic Content of the Performance: Carnival director Thiago Martins and librettist Igor Ricardo created a narrative that covers Lula's journey from drought-stricken Pernambuco through migration to São Paulo, union activities during the military dictatorship to the presidency. The samba-enredo, composed by nine composers (including well-known authors Teresa Cristina and André Diniz), connects personal biography with collective Brazilian history. The text mentions Zuzu Angel, Henfil, and other victims of authoritarianism, linking personal triumph with the struggle for social justice. Symbolism and Political Context: The choice of the mulungu tree as the central image refers to Lula's childhood in Pernambuco, where he envisioned a better future from the heights of its branches. This metaphorical choice connects provincial roots with a national scale. Alongside this is the mention of food security (a reference to social activist Betinho and his words "hunger hurries"), indicating the programmatic link of the carnival performance with the social policy of the current administration. Impact on BRICS Lula's presence at this event carries significance in the context of positioning Brazil within BRICS. The event demonstrates the strengthening of national identity and Brazil's soft power through cultural export. The Rio Carnival is one of Brazil's most recognizable cultural platforms on the global stage. Supporting the samba school dedicated to his biography allows Lula to connect national significance (the carnival as a symbol of Brazilian democracy and cultural pluralism) with a regional leadership role. In the context of BRICS, this updates the narrative that the leaders of the bloc, including Brazil, build strength based on national cultural traditions and social integration, rather than solely on economic or military dominance. The carnival presence enhances Lula's image as a leader rooted in his own people. Forecast and Risks Possible Outcomes: The samba school may receive high scores from judges for artistry and social messaging, which will strengthen its position in future seasons. The president's presence is likely to enhance media coverage of the event and draw attention to the social issues raised in the performance. Risks and Criticism: Critical voices may arise interpreting the state presence at the carnival event as the use of culture for political purposes. The opposition segment may argue about the improper integration of official state symbols into the entertainment space. Additionally, the quality of the performance on the parallel (the expected result within a few hours after the parade) will be critical for the reputational effect. Summary: The debut of Acadêmicos de Niterói in the top league of the Rio de Janeiro carnival with a theme dedicated to President Lula represents a strategic use of a cultural platform to strengthen national narrative and position Brazil as a center of cultural soft power. The event demonstrates the integration of high state level with folk culture, although it may provoke debates about the boundaries of politicizing mass art. The outcome of the parade and public perception will determine the success of this initiative in the long-term communication strategy of the administration.

Lead: On the night of February 13 to 14, 2026, the first night of the Carnival parades took place at the Anhembi Sambadrome in São Paulo, where seven schools from the Special Group showcased themes related to social struggles, astrology, and spirituality. With favorable weather and full stands, all schools successfully completed their performances within the allotted time (maximum 1 hour 10 minutes), confirming a high level of preparation for the 2026 celebration. Detailed Analysis The first night of the carnival began at 23:00 with the performance of the school “Mocidade Unida da Mooca” and ended at 05:30 with the performance of “Barroca Zona Sul”. The order of the seven schools in the Special Group was as follows: Mocidade Unida da Mooca (23:00), Colorado do Brás (00:05), Dragões da Real (01:10), Acadêmicos do Tatuapé (02:15), Rosas de Ouro (03:20), Vai-Vai (04:35), and Barroca Zona Sul (05:30). One of the schools, “Colorado do Brás”, presented a plot about witches titled “Witch Unleashed. Ladies of Knowledge Reborn in Colorado”. This reflects the schools' desire to tell stories that connect mythology with social messages. In addition to the visual elements of the carnival, the parade included songs, dances, and symbolism reflecting spiritual and philosophical reflections. The second night of the parades is scheduled for February 14-15, when the remaining seven schools of the Special Group will perform: Império da Casa Verde (22:30), Águia de Ouro (23:35), Mocidade Alegre (00:40), Gaviões da Fiel (01:45), Estrela do Terceiro Milênio (02:50), Tom Maior (03:55), and Camisa Verde e Branco (05:00). The third night (February 15) is scheduled for performances by eight schools from the Access Group I, starting at 21:00 and ending at 04:00. Impact on Brazil and Tourism Attraction The 2026 Carnival demonstrates the significance of São Paulo's cultural heritage in attracting tourism and strengthening Brazil's global reputation as a cultural powerhouse. Full stands on the first night indicate a continuing interest from both locals and foreign tourists in this celebration. The parade schedule, approved by the Liga Independente das Escolas de Samba de São Paulo (Liga-SP) back in May 2025, reflects the careful organization of the event at the state level. Forecast and Risks The successful completion of the first night within the set time indicates good potential for the two remaining nights of parades. The main risk is related to weather conditions; however, the first night took place under favorable conditions. Additionally, the growing popularity of the carnival suggests continued high demand for tickets and the need for enhanced security measures and crowd management. Future performances will be indicative of the overall quality of the 2026 carnival and its positioning on the international stage. Summary: The first night of the 2026 Carnival in São Paulo showcased the successful execution of a grand cultural event, with seven schools performing according to schedule and presenting themes related to social and spiritual issues. With favorable weather conditions and full stands, the event confirmed the stability and appeal of the carnival as an important component of Brazil's cultural and tourism calendar. The two remaining nights of parades are expected to follow the same organization and quality of execution.

Lead: Raízen, the largest company in Brazil's sugar-energy sector, is facing a critical financial crisis. As of February 9, 2026, all three global rating agencies (Fitch, S&P Global, and Moody's) downgraded the company's rating, stripping it of its investment status. Divergent debt reached R$ 55.32 billion (a 43.4% increase over the year), with a critical debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 5.1 times — instead of the healthy 2-3 times for the sector. The company reported a loss of R$ 15.65 billion in the third quarter of the 2025/26 financial year. Detailed Analysis Debt Structure and Liquidity Threat As of September 2025, Raízen's divergent debt amounted to R$ 53.4 billion, and including gross debt, the figure reached R$ 68.6 billion. Interest payments alone consume R$ 7.5 billion annually. According to Fitch's forecasts, the company maintains R$ 18.6 billion in cash plus revolving credit lines of NULL billion; however, these reserves will be fully depleted within two years at current spending rates. For 2026-2027, financial expenses and investments will consume R$ 9.5 billion and R$ 7.5 billion respectively, ensuring a negative cash flow. Double Blow: Agricultural Crisis and Management Errors The financial disaster at Raízen is the result of two parallel processes. The first is agricultural: after a record harvest in 2023/24, the Central-South region (the main operational base) faced severe drought, fires, and frosts in 2024/25. Sugar and ethanol production fell, and production costs reached historical highs. The entry into the new 2025/26 season is characterized by stabilization at a low level: less available sugarcane and increased structural costs. The second factor is serious strategic miscalculations by management. The company halted trading operations that provided flexibility in managing price risks. More critically, the cancellation of the “risk sacado” mechanism (a practice of intermediate financing through banks when settling with Petrobras) was made. This tool provided R$ 12 billion in working capital financing. The new management closed it out of fear of tax complications (IOF), forcing the company to use its own cash flow for advance payments to suppliers, structurally worsening the balance sheet. Loss of Investment Status and Contagion Effect The downgrade of Raízen's rating triggered a cascading collapse: the company's bonds fell below 50% of their nominal value on the secondary market, forcing institutional funds to sell positions under forced rules. Investment committees of creditors with Raízen's global bonds hired White & Case as legal advisors. The crisis spread to the entire Cosan group: the subsidiary logistics company Rumo suspended the placement of R$ 1.5 billion in preferential bonds due to investor refusals amid rising risk. Owners' Dilemma and the Role of BTG Pactual Raízen is owned by Shell (a British oil and gas corporation) and Cosan (controlled by Rubens Ometto). Both parties face a conflict of interest. The estimated capitalization need is R$ 20 billion. Cosan, in its own financial dilemma, lacks the capacity for a leading role. Shell is not ready to invest alone. Since late 2025, the management structure of Cosan has included the investment bank BTG Pactual (through a reduction of Rubens Ometto), represented by partner Renato Mazzola. BTG is implementing a strict cost-cutting program in Cosan and its assets (Raízen, Rumo, Compass, Moove), while also seeking debt renegotiation — a standard approach for the fund. Pressure from Criminalization of the Sector Amid financial troubles, Raízen is also facing increasing pressure from competitors operating outside legal frameworks: fly-by-night firms, networks linked to organized crime. Rubens Ometto characterized this phenomenon as a “cancer” eroding legal competition and penalizing honest taxpayers. Impact on BRICS The crisis at Raízen has indirect implications for the BRICS economy through several channels: Brazil's Energy Security: Raízen is not only a producer of ethanol (renewable fuel) but also a critical player in the energy balance. Its weakening could lead to a reduction in domestic biofuel supply and increased import energy dependencies. Currency Flows and Investment Attraction: The loss of investment status complicates Brazilian companies' access to international capital markets, raising the cost of raising funds for the entire sector. The effect could be contagious for other large Brazilian conglomerates. Energy Geopolitics: Shell's (a British company) involvement in negotiations rebalances power relations within BRICS. BTG Pactual, with its international connections, could become a mediator in the restructuring of Raízen. Forecast and Risks Debt Restructuring Scenario: The most likely path is an agreement between creditors (a creditors' committee is already being formed) and the company to reduce nominal values/extend repayment terms. This will require 6-12 months of negotiations and a favorable agricultural season in 2026/27. Capitalization Scenario: An injection of R$ 20 billion from Shell and Cosan is needed (possibly with additional participation from BTG). Political agreements between the parties may delay the decision. Liquidity Risk: In the event of failed negotiations and lack of capitalization, cash reserves will be depleted by the end of 2027-2028. This could trigger a default or forced asset sale. Agricultural Performance: Any recovery depends on normal harvest conditions. New climatic shocks or a repeat of drought will make recovery impossible. Summary: Raízen faces a cross-crisis of management errors (cancellation of financing mechanisms, closure of trading), external factors (agricultural losses, high rates), and institutional constraints (disagreement among owners). The company is not at a critical liquidity point in the short term, but without debt restructuring and new capitalization, it will face a critical crisis by 2027-2028. The negotiation process will be a test for the Brazilian financial system and will affect the energy sector's access to international capital markets.

Lead: In December 2025, Novonor (formerly Odebrecht) announced an exclusivity agreement with the Shine I FIDC fund (valued by IG4 Soluções) to negotiate a potential transfer of control over the petrochemical giant Braskem. The fund is acquiring Novonor's debts to banks amounting to about 20 billion reais, secured by Braskem's securities, and as a result may obtain 50.1% of the company's voting capital. This event concludes a long period of uncertainty in the ownership structure of the largest petrochemical company in South America and has serious implications for the geopolitical balance in the region. Detailed Analysis Deal Architecture The transaction structure is built using two parallel mechanisms. The first is the acquisition by the Shine I FIDC fund of the total amount of loans that major Brazilian banks (Itaú Unibanco, Santander, Bradesco, Banco do Brasil, and BNDES) had to Novonor, secured by collateral rights on Braskem shares. The second mechanism involves the transfer of all common shares of Braskem (with voting rights) from Novonor to a private equity fund (FIP), through which joint control between IG4 and Petrobras will be exercised. Under the terms of the agreement, after the deal closes, the fund, valued by IG4, will own 50.11% of the voting capital and 34.32% of the total capital of Braskem. Novonor will retain a residual stake of 4% of preferred shares without management rights in the company. The repayment of bank loans is planned to be carried out through the sale of Braskem shares on the market; however, this process may stretch over five years while waiting for the petrochemical company's market value to recover. Periods and Conditions The exclusivity agreement has an initial term of 60 days, during which the parties are obliged to negotiate in good faith, agree on the final structure of the operation, prepare the necessary documentation, and initiate the approval process by the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE) — Brazil's main antitrust authority. The deal is also subject to a number of conditions that must be met before its closing. Role of Petrobras Petrobras currently owns 47% of Braskem's voting capital. In January 2026, the state oil company officially announced that it would not exercise its preemptive right regarding the potential sale of shares owned by Novonor. This decision paves the way for IG4 to obtain a controlling stake. After the final closing of the transaction, a new agreement is expected to be concluded between the shareholders — between the fund (to which Braskem shares will transfer) and Petrobras — to establish a system of joint management of the petrochemical company. Impact on BRICS The deal with Braskem has profound implications for the geopolitical positioning of BRICS in the global petrochemical industry. Braskem is the largest producer of plastics in South America and one of the key suppliers for the industry across the continent. The transition of control from the Portuguese Odebrecht family (through Novonor) to the structured IG4 fund, working in conjunction with the state-owned Petrobras, strengthens the role of the state in critical sectors of the economy. For the BRICS alliance, this means greater consolidation of control over strategic raw material and processing activities. Petrobras, remaining a key partner through joint management, retains the ability to influence the flow of chemical products, which are critically important for the supply chains of the alliance's countries. At the same time, the involvement of a specialized fund (IG4) introduces an element of professional management focused on restoring the company's financial health and improving operational efficiency. Forecast and Risks Approval Scenario If CADE approves the deal (which is considered a likely scenario given its focus on financial restructuring rather than market concentration), operational management will follow. The current management of Braskem and board members will remain in their positions, ensuring continuity of operations. IG4 plans to implement a comprehensive restructuring and value creation plan; however, its implementation will only begin after the final closing of the deal and the entry into force of the new agreement between shareholders. Potential Risks The main risk is related to the recovery of Braskem's market value. The company is under pressure due to the global crisis in the petrochemical market, where prices remain depressed at the international level. The five-year horizon for asset realization necessary for repaying bank loans presents a significant time risk. Any further deterioration in conditions in the global plastics market could delay the process of returning investments to creditors. The second risk is the lack of approval from regulators. Although the deal does not imply an increase in market concentration (since Petrobras was already the main controlling shareholder), it may face political objections or conditions from CADE. Positive Prospects For minority shareholders, the transaction potentially provides "greater stability in management, predictability, and clarity of long-term strategy." Years of uncertainty regarding the ownership structure have created a brake on the company's development. The transition to a clear system of joint management between IG4 (specializing in company recovery) and Petrobras may facilitate the implementation of the transformations necessary to restore Braskem's competitiveness at both regional and global levels. Summary The potential sale of Novonor's stake in Braskem to the Shine I FIDC fund (valued by IG4) represents a turning point in the history of the largest petrochemical company in South America. The deal, which includes a 60-day exclusivity period, aims to resolve a long-standing crisis of ownership and financing that has accumulated due to the global downturn in the plastics market and the financial difficulties of the heir to the Odebrecht empire. Subject to regulatory approval and recovery of market prices, this event could become a catalyst for a new phase of development for Braskem under the joint management of the state partner (Petrobras) and a specialized investment fund. For BRICS, this strengthens state control over strategic petrochemical capacity on the continent.

Lead: Brazil is undergoing a massive transformation in the water supply and sewage sector due to the acceleration of privatization and the development of public-private partnership (PPP) models. In 2026, a record investment volume of over R$ 20 billion is expected through four major PPP projects covering 477 municipalities. This trend reflects a fundamental shift in the infrastructure development strategy following the enactment of the Sanitation Law in 2020. Detailed Analysis The privatization process of the water sector in Brazil gained significant momentum after the successful privatization of Sabesp (Basic Sanitation Company of the State of São Paulo) — the largest sanitation company in the country. In June 2025, the Equatorial Group consortium acquired a controlling stake in the company. This transaction became a catalyst for the development of similar projects across the country. In March 2026, the privatization of Copasa (Sanitation Company of the State of Minas Gerais) is scheduled. The state legislative assembly approved the de-statization law on February 17, receiving 53 votes in favor with the necessary 48 votes. The model includes the state retaining a controlling stake ("golden share") with veto power over strategic decisions, allowing the state to maintain influence while transferring operational control to the private sector. The PPP system is developing as an alternative to full privatization. According to research, PPPs in sanitation are characterized by the retention of state companies in the water supply sector, while the collection and treatment of wastewater are transferred to the private sector. This model is applied to accelerate investments in regions with the greatest service deficits, especially in wastewater treatment. In 2026, four major PPP projects are planned to enter the market: Goiás (R$ 6.3 billion, 216 municipalities, with a bidding date of February 25), Ceará (R$ 6.9 billion, 128 municipalities), Paraíba (R$ 3.1 billion, 85 cities), and Rio Grande do Norte (R$ 4.1 billion, 48 municipalities). The Goiás bidding was structured by the State Infrastructure Secretariat with the support of BNDES (National Bank for Economic and Social Development) and provides for an administrative concession for wastewater treatment services in three blocks. In addition to these four PPP projects, two additional concessions are on the radar: in Alagoas (block D for water supply and sewage in 21 cities, including Arapiraca) and in Rondônia (45 municipalities, R$ 4.9 billion). A total of six major models will cover 543 cities and attract R$ 27.5 billion in investments to serve about 11 million people. In Pernambuco, a bidding already took place at the end of 2025, where the BRK Ambiental-Acciona consortium won, gaining control of 151 municipalities (including the capital Recife and Fernando de Noronha) with R$ 15.4 billion in planned investments, while the manager Pátria received the Sertão block with 24 municipalities (R$ 2.9 billion). The contracts will be valid for 35 years. Impact on BRICS The development of privatization in the water sector in Brazil is significant for the BRICS bloc as a demonstration of the effectiveness of the public-private partnership model in large-scale infrastructure. Brazil, as the largest economy in the region, shows the way to mobilize private capital to address critical issues in developing countries: over 34 million Brazilians lack access to piped water, and more than 90 million live without wastewater collection and treatment systems. The involvement of international players (Acciona, BRK, Equatorial Group, Pátria Investimentos) indicates the globalization of the Brazilian sector and the attraction of foreign investments. This creates a parallel with the infrastructure initiatives of other BRICS countries, which are also seeking private financing to expand sanitation service coverage. The scale of investments — R$ 88 billion by 2026 — demonstrates the potential of private capital to address infrastructure challenges in developing economies. Forecast and Risks The most developed models are in Goiás, where the bidding has already been scheduled. It is expected that 2026 will be the year with the highest volume of PPPs in the water sector since the introduction of the Sanitation Law in 2020. The lower political complexity of PPP models (compared to full privatization) lies in the fact that these projects do not require a change of operator interacting with the population, which reduces political resistance even in election years. However, there are risks. The 2026 elections (for governors and president) could potentially complicate the implementation of projects, but analysts suggest that the municipal nature of sanitation management should ensure the political insulation of these projects from federal elections. Additionally, the incomplete implementation of previously planned investments in some regions indicates financial and executive challenges. Significant potential is seen in the possible expansion of projects by including drainage (flood control systems), which will increase the volume of investments. The São Paulo Infrastructure Secretariat plans to include drainage in some future projects, using the regulatory framework applied during the privatization of Sabesp. Summary: Brazil demonstrates a large-scale and accelerating transformation of the water sector through privatization and PPPs. The year 2026 will be a turning point with the attraction of over R$ 20 billion in investments through four major PPP projects that will cover 477 municipalities. The successful privatization of Sabesp has set a new standard, inspiring similar operations, including the gradual de-statization of Copasa. The PPP model, which retains state control in water supply while transferring wastewater treatment to the private sector, reduces political barriers. This transformation reflects the state's recognition of the need to attract private capital to achieve the universal service goals set by the Sanitation Law, while mobilizing the private sector during a period of accelerated investment in a developing economy.