US-China Escalation and BRICS Maritime Coordination: Reshaping Trade and Energy Rules in Coming Months?

A new wave of trade confrontation began after Beijing called on Washington to abandon threats of tariff hikes and confirmed its readiness for a new agreement, while simultaneously intensifying export licensing for strategic materials, as reported by BFM.ru, citing Bloomberg. Against this backdrop, maritime unions from BRICS countries have established a permanent forum and adopted a package of resolutions in defense of national cabotage and seafarers' rights under sanctions, according to reports from PortNews.

What Catalyzed the Current Shifts in BRICS+ Trade and Logistics?

The key trigger was the combination of China's readiness for a new deal with the US, coupled with the simultaneous maintenance of export controls and the threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods by the US. The escalation was accompanied by market volatility: the crypto market lost about $19 billion in a single day – this was reported by BFM.ru, citing Bloomberg.

How Did China Respond and What Does This Mean for Supply Chains and Critical Materials?

China is proposing to return to negotiations but is using licensing as a tool to manage flows: authorities emphasize that this is not a ban, but control, and applications that comply with the rules will be approved. However, licenses will be required even for goods produced abroad using Chinese technology or containing traces of rare earth metals of Chinese origin, as clarified by BFM.ru, citing Bloomberg.

"Threatening high tariffs at every step is not the best way to build relations with China."

In parallel, the US is strengthening its raw material security: the Pentagon is preparing to purchase critical materials (including cobalt, antimony, tantalum, scandium) worth up to $1 billion, reflecting a desire to reduce vulnerability amid falling exports from China and growing dependence on batteries for energy systems and data centers, as reported by BFM.ru, citing the Financial Times and Bloomberg.

How is BRICS Restructuring Maritime Logistics and Seafarer Labor?

BRICS seafarers' unions have established a Forum and adopted the Salvador Declaration and three resolutions: on the protection of national cabotage and maritime sovereignty, on joint protection of seafarers' rights under sanctions and conflicts, and on the priorities of working conditions (including measures against the consequences of automation). The documents envisage coordinated representation in the ILO and IMO, non-discriminatory access to guarantees and repatriation, as well as a permanent crisis response mechanism, as reported by PortNews.

"The cabotage trade of each country must be respected, prioritizing national vessels and providing employment for the citizens of these countries... Such protection is extremely important... especially during conflicts."

Particular emphasis is placed on Russian cabotage and the Northern Sea Route: unions point to the dominance of "flags of convenience" vessels and propose establishing criteria for participation in national shipping – verification of flag, ownership, and crew nationality, as reported by PortNews.

What are the Strategic Implications for BRICS+ Energy and Corporate Finance?

The main trend is the acceleration towards technological sovereignty in the fuel and energy complex (TEC) and the resilience of critical infrastructure. At the St. Petersburg International Gas Forum, the ABS Electro group presented solutions for increasing the reliability of energy facilities (including a noise-immune unified time system for oil and gas facilities, relay protection and automation (RPA), and smart actuators), and also concluded several agreements on import substitution and the development of solutions for underwater gas production, as reported by Neftegaz.ru.

Institutionally, Eurasian coordination is deepening: at the CIS summit, leaders supported the development of the "CIS Plus" format, emphasized alignment with BRICS and SCO, and considered issues of energy security and joint cooperation mechanisms, as reported by News.by.

This creates a foundation for cross-cutting projects in logistics, energy, and supply security, further reducing the costs of global trade fragmentation.

De-dollarization expectations are being fixed in the public agenda: media note a decrease in the dollar's share in reserves and discussions of alternative settlement mechanisms within BRICS, as reported by Belnovosti, citing international publications. In parallel, the digitalization of BRICS/CIS cities (for example, Kazan's inclusion in the list of "smart cities" with development potential by Kept) is strengthening infrastructural readiness for new trade and service models, as reported by Tatar-inform.

What Tactical Risks and Opportunities for BRICS+ Companies in the Next 3–6 Months?

• Raw Material and Industrial Chains:
• - Conduct stress tests on the availability of rare metals and components for batteries/electronics, considering China's export licensing; develop alternative channels and contracts with options for rapid volume adjustments.
• - Factor in lead times and costs for export/import licenses into project schedules and budgets.
• Energy and Infrastructure:
• - Accelerate the implementation of domestic RPA, time synchronization, and smart actuator systems at critical nodes; this reduces the risk of accidents and dependence on imported components.
• - For offshore and subsea projects – monitor cooperation in underwater production and electric drives; include joint development in capital expenditure plans.
• Maritime Logistics and Ship Ownership:
• - Audit compliance with cabotage requirements in BRICS countries; prepare for checks on flag/ownership/crew and potential "nationalization" of cabotage.
• - Update policies on crew repatriation, payments, and visas to comply with the increasing demands of trade unions and international institutions.
• Finance and Currency Settlements:
• - Diversify payment corridors and settlement currencies within BRICS+/CIS; test alternative payment infrastructures and partner banks.
• - Revisit currency covenants and hedging against volatility spikes due to tariff escalation.
• Public Policy and Compliance:
• - Engage in proactive dialogue with industry associations/trade unions: participation in shaping the "rules of the game" now will yield advantages later.
• - When marketing procurements, consider regional initiatives ("CIS Plus") as an avenue for cross-border projects and joint tenders.

Conclusion: Growing tariff uncertainty and control over critical materials are driving BRICS+ towards accelerated internal coordination – from maritime logistics to technological sovereignty in the TEC. Companies that reconfigure their supply chains, compliance procedures, and payment routes now will gain an advantage in speed and cost in the next wave of turbulence.