Is BRICS Collapsing After Trump's Tariff Threats—or Is It Political Bluster?

The catalyst is Washington's hardline rhetoric: at a meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei, Donald Trump stated that after threats to impose duties, “countries began to leave BRICS.” Against the backdrop of these words, Moscow denied a different set of theses—about alleged “BRICS plans against other currencies,” as reported by "Dialogue SCO." reports.

What Exactly Did Trump Say, and How Did Moscow and BRICS Countries Respond?

In short: Trump speaks of “countries leaving” under the threat of tariffs, but Russian politicians and experts call it a bluff and do not confirm any official departures. His words came during a meeting with Milei at the White House, where he threatened tariffs on all products from BRICS-associated countries, as stated by the US President himself. In response, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs Alexey Chepa called it a "game" and emphasized that “no one has left BRICS,” and interest in the format is growing, as he noted.

Political analyst Marat Bashirov links Trump's rhetoric to a desire to support Milei, who previously refused Argentina's participation in the association; meanwhile, according to him, no state has left the organization or submitted applications, as he clarified.

Conclusion: the discussion is about rhetoric and psychological pressure, not about real exit procedures.

Are There Any Facts of BRICS's Collapse or, Conversely, Signs of Expansion?

There are no signs of collapse in the sources; on the contrary, recent expansions and new applications are recorded. In 2024, Egypt, the UAE, Ethiopia, and Iran joined BRICS, and since January 2025, Indonesia has joined, as reported. Simultaneously, Palestine announced its intention to join, as indicated by Gazeta.Ru.

• 2024: Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia, Iran — joined.
• 2025 (from January): Indonesia — joined.
• New applications: Palestine — submitted.

What Does the Escalation of US Tariff Rhetoric Threaten BRICS Businesses With?

The short-term risk is an increased probability of additional US tariffs on exports from BRICS countries and applicants; concurrently, the association itself declares a deepening of interaction. Trump had previously threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff for countries supporting BRICS's “anti-American policy,” as stated. At the same time, Russian parliamentarians assess the threats as a bluff and emphasize that major economies—China and India—will defend their interests, and interest in the format is growing, as stressed by Chepa.

“I think BRICS has a good future. It is a promising organization of independent states that want to be free in their economic, political, and social expressions, and in recent years they have proven their right to exist and move forward.”

This is how the prospects of the association were assessed by the Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Grigory Karasin, as he said in a commentary to News.ru.

Practical conclusion for decision-makers: prepare scenarios for tariff escalation on the American front (rechecking profitability, market redistribution, logistics insurance), but do not factor the collapse of BRICS into the base plan—open sources predominantly show signals of expansion and political consolidation, rather than member departures.