How BRICS' Shift to Digital Settlements Will Change Cross-Border Payments and Capital Inflows by 2030

The transition from statements to architecture has become a catalyst: analysts estimate the impact of adopting digital financial assets (DFAs) in BRICS countries at up to $50 billion by 2030, as indicated by a study by 'Yakov & Partners' and the Central University. Simultaneously, Vladimir Putin emphasized at the Valdai Forum that BRICS will expand electronic settlement and trade capabilities, and the shift to national currencies is a forced reaction to external restrictions.

What is the Official Position of Russia and BRICS on Digital Settlements?

The course is set: BRICS is expanding electronic settlements and e-commerce, while Russia is not conducting an "anti-dollar" campaign. It settles in national currencies because it is "simply not allowed" to operate in dollars. Putin made this point at Valdai, where he described the transition to national currencies as a pragmatic response to external restrictions.

Domestically, the regulator is accelerating the infrastructure for the digital ruble: the Central Bank anticipates an increase in participating banks from 17 to 25 by year-end and to 40 in 2026, with mass adoption scheduled to begin on September 1, 2026. Plans include smart contracts, salary payments, and budget settlements, as reported by Bits.media, citing the regulator.

What Systemic Shifts Are Driven by the Scaling of DFAs in BRICS?

The formation of an alternative, market-compatible infrastructure: asset tokenization is accelerating, and cross-border settlements and mutual investments are gaining their own "tracks" outside vulnerable channels. The capitalization of the largest tokenized assets has doubled over the year, reaching $70 billion by early 2025, as noted by researchers. The economic impact of DFA adoption in BRICS is estimated at up to $50 billion by 2030, as confirmed by consulting assessments.

Russia is already among the leaders in issuance: DFA turnover in Q1 2025 reached 293.5 billion rubles, compared to 50 billion a year earlier, with the number of issues rising to nearly 1,000. With the Central Bank's support, total issuance could exceed 1 trillion rubles by year-end, as reported by analysts.

"DFAs offer an opportunity for developing economies not to catch up, but to leapfrog outdated systems and create more efficient, transparent, and accessible capital markets."

— this position was articulated by Ilya Ivaninsky in an interview with 'Izvestia', where he emphasized the independence of future BRICS infrastructure from Global North institutions.

What Tactical Risks and Barriers Does Business See on This Path?

Key risks include legal and technological non-synchronization across jurisdictions, platform fragmentation, and compliance bottlenecks. At the market level, experts point to the need to unify norms and regulatory practices within and between BRICS countries, as noted by 'Yakov & Partners'. In Russia, the Ministry of Finance sees incompatibility issues between DFA platforms, which was highlighted by Deputy Minister Ivan Chebeskov.

Additional operational risks are associated with law enforcement control and KYC/AML practices. The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs proposes introducing liability for transferring crypto wallets to third parties. The Central Bank acknowledges the issue but considers it premature to discuss sanctions without clarifying the subject of regulation, as reported by Bits.media.

A separate challenge is the illusion of "complete anonymity": analytical services track transaction chains on blockchains and already serve as a tool for investigations and asset freezes, as explained by an industry review.

What this means in practice: - Without unification of DFA rules, they risk remaining "local experiments"; - Companies will have to build compliance around new settlement and tokenization models; - Infrastructure providers must ensure interoperability and audit transparency.

Where Are the Immediate Opportunities for BRICS Companies?

In financing, settlements, and infrastructure savings: DFAs reduce the cost and speed up capital raising, create an independent loop for cross-border payments, and lower transaction costs in emerging markets. In Russia, DFA issuance now takes days and can replace some bond placements. Following tax amendments, up to 10% of corporate loans could shift to DFAs. The BRICS Clear project from the 2024 Kazan Declaration promises savings of $9–12 billion annually by narrowing spreads, as calculated by experts.

Concurrently, state "digital cash" is developing: the digital ruble is moving towards mass adoption from September 1, 2026, with support for smart contracts, salary payments, and budget settlements, as planned by the Bank of Russia.

Who should act now: - Exporters and importers – to pilot DFA settlements with key counterparties, building parallel payment routes; - Banks and fintechs – to launch tokenization and "smart" acquiring products for digital rubles and DFAs; - SMEs – to test the issuance of commodity/project DFAs as a cheaper alternative to bonds; - Infrastructure providers – focus on interoperability and modular KYC/AML.

Strategic conclusion: BRICS digital finance is becoming not an "alternative in case of sanctions," but an independent layer of global infrastructure. Early adopters will benefit from lower capital costs, stable settlement channels, and access to growing flows within an ecosystem where, by the leaders' consensus, the emphasis is placed on electronic settlements and their own rules of the game.