BRICS+ Shapes a New Geoeconomy: Energy Corridors, Visa-Free Travel, and Trade Wars?
The development of strategic transport and energy corridors is gaining new momentum, impacting global trade and geopolitical alliances. The signing of a memorandum between Russia and China on the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline signals the countries' intentions to expand economic cooperation, particularly in the context of increasing pressure from the West. This trend extends beyond the energy sector to the creation of integrated financial systems.
What is the Status of the Power of Siberia-2 Project and Its Significance for the Energy Market?
Gazprom and China's CNPC signed a memorandum on the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year, which will run through Mongolia. The pipeline will be nearly 7,000 kilometers long. Commercial aspects of the supply, including pricing, will be discussed separately. Alexey Miller, Chairman of the Management Committee of Gazprom, stated that gas for China will be cheaper than for consumers in Europe due to lower transportation costs from Eastern Siberia.
Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a senior researcher at the Financial University, noted that this is currently only a declaration of intent, and construction will take years. However, as Igor Yushkov, an analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, explains, China needs additional gas volumes, and energy security considerations outweigh the risks of dependence on a single supplier. He estimates that the construction of Power of Siberia-2 could take about five years, and another five years to reach full capacity.
"Russia exports 6-7 million barrels per day – this is a volume that cannot be replaced in a short period. If partners refuse our raw materials, it will lead to a severe energy crisis, as oil prices will not just increase, they will skyrocket to triple-digit values – to $150-200 per barrel."
— this scenario was outlined by Igor Yushkov, lead analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, in an interview with URA.RU, commenting on the consequences of an embargo on Russian oil.
In addition to Power of Siberia-2, an increase in supplies on the existing Power of Siberia from 38 to 44 billion cubic meters is being discussed, as well as on the Far Eastern route – from 10 to 12 billion cubic meters. The total volume of pipeline gas from the Russian Federation to the PRC could reach 106 billion cubic meters, and including LNG – up to 116 billion cubic meters per year, as predicted bz Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.
Against this backdrop, European countries are striving to reduce their dependence on Russian gas. While in 2021 the EU purchased 150.2 billion cubic meters of gas from Moscow, by 2023 the volume decreased to 42.9 billion. Russia's share in EU gas imports dropped from 44.9% to 19%.
How Will the Visa-Free Regime Between Russia and China Affect Tourism and Business?
China is introducing a pilot visa-free regime for individual travelers from Russia for the period from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026. Russians will be able to stay in the PRC for up to 30 days without a visa; similar conditions apply to Chinese citizens visiting the Russian Federation. This measure covers business and tourist trips, as well as visits to relatives and friends.
According to estimates by Alexander Yakovlev, head of the educational program "Tourism and Regional Studies" at the Presidential Academy in St. Petersburg, tourist flow to China could double. Arthur Muradyan, Vice President of ATOR, stated that the tourist flow from Russia to China could increase by 30-40% in the near future.
Nina Ladygina-Glazunova, Director General of the BRICS and SCO Center for Innovative Diplomacy, emphasized that the visa-free regime is a "strategically thought-out decision" for economic cooperation, facilitating:
- easier participation of Russian entrepreneurs in industry events in China;
- savings on visa costs for companies;
- encouraging the use of rubles and yuan in settlements, supporting de-dollarization strategy.
Megafon has also announced its readiness to invest in Azerbaijan's telecommunications industry, signaling an expansion of economic ties in the region.
How US Trade Wars are Reshaping Global Supply Chains and Strengthening BRICS+?
US trade policy continues to influence global trade flows, especially concerning BRICS+ countries. US Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker stated the possibility of imposing tariffs on Chinese goods for importing hydrocarbons from Russia, similar to tariffs against India. These measures are aimed at pressuring countries that maintain economic ties with Russia.
However, as "NiK" notes, such aggressive policies lead to the rapprochement of countries within the BRICS+ bloc. India, for example, called attacks from the US and EU unfounded, emphasizing that Western countries themselves previously encouraged trade with Russia. Anton Siluanov, Russia's Minister of Finance, pointed to the growth of bilateral trade between Russia and China to $240 billion, as well as the prospects for developing common payment systems and financial institutions within BRICS.
An example of changing trade flows is the beef market. Brazil, as a BRICS member, has capitalized on the US trade war and increased its meat exports to China, outpacing Argentina. In July, Brazilian beef exports to China rose by 18%. This is due to Brazil facing a 76.4% tariff to enter the US market, prompting it to seek new markets in Asia.
Meanwhile, the Russian economy continues to demonstrate resilience despite sanctions. Vladimir Putin stated that Russia's economy grew by 4.3% last year, while the Eurozone's GDP increased by only 0.9%. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov highlighted that Russia has reoriented its export flows to BRICS countries, confirming its self-sufficiency.