Will US Tariff Escalation Accelerate De-dollarization and BRICS Transition to Non-Dollar Settlements?

The escalation of the US-China trade conflict has reached a new level: Donald Trump has threatened 100-500% tariffs on Chinese goods and intense pressure on supply chain allies, including rare earths, demanding political concessions, as "Kommersant" reports. Simultaneously, he stated that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to stop purchasing Russian oil, calling it a "big stop" – Lenta.ru reported.

Trump himself characterized the creation of BRICS as an "attack on the dollar" and threatened tariffs on countries remaining in or planning to join the bloc, claiming that several nations have already decided to leave – such statements he made while also stating his readiness to discuss trade with Russia "after the conflict in Ukraine ends."

How did China, India, and Russia react to the US rhetoric about BRICS "attacking the dollar"?

China publicly rejected the logic of pressure. The PRC's Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the US approach "typical unilateral hegemony and economic coercion," while the US Treasury, in contrast, accused China of "fueling the Russian military machine" through components for drones. Amidst Beijing's plans to restrict rare earth exports, Washington proposed extending the "tariff truce" with a delay in control over critical materials, as "Kommersant" writes.

India publicly linked its refusal of Russian oil to a broader sanctions picture: New Delhi had previously notified that it would take such a step if the US lifted restrictions on crude oil supplies from Venezuela and Iran – Rambler reported on this position.

"He assured me today that they will not buy oil from Russia. That's a big stop," Trump said about his conversation with Narendra Modi.

At the same time, Moscow is broadcasting a contradictory signal. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak expressed confidence in the continuation of Russian oil supplies to India, and the official discourse around BRICS emphasizes that work on settlement alternatives is "not against the dollar." Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov recalled that the bloc "has never planned anything against third countries" – this was noted in comments by Expert.ru and in an broadcast on "Govorit Moskva."

What is the systemic outcome and what does it mean for the dollar and financial architecture?

The key systemic effect is the increased incentive for BRICS countries to accelerate the creation and use of alternative settlement mechanisms.

Firstly, BRICS countries are already working on alternative payment models and financing tools, while publicly emphasizing that the goal is "not against the dollar," as highlighted in a "Govorit Moskva" broadcast. Secondly, threats of super-high tariffs, export controls on chips, and the struggle for rare earths expand the area of political risk around dollar infrastructure and critical supply chains, as "Kommersant" systemically describes.

Restricting access to advanced technologies and attempts to link trade concessions with control over raw material "nodes" enhance fragmentation. Participants will seek autonomy in logistics, payments, and clearing, reducing vulnerability to external regulatory decisions and sanctions.

Which markets and sectors are at risk first, and where are tactical steps for BRICS+ businesses possible?

In the coming months, increased volatility is most likely to manifest in technological supply chains, raw material "nodes," and energy. Meanwhile, alternative settlement mechanisms within BRICS are becoming a practical tool for reducing transactional and sanctions risks.

What will be affected first: - High-tech and semiconductors: Tightening US export controls and expanding blacklists create new barriers to accessing advanced chips, as indicated by "Kommersant's" review. - Critical materials: China's restrictions on rare earth and related technology exports exacerbate the dependence of global production on political decisions, which has already become a point of negotiation around the "tariff truce" – "Kommersant" also wrote about this.

Energy: Uncertainty surrounding Russian oil for India persists – between Trump's statements on a "quick stop" and India's conditions for refusal (lifting sanctions on Venezuela and Iran), as reported by Lenta.ru here and specified by Rambler here.

Tactical steps gaining rationality within this agenda: - Testing and piloting calculations under alternative models and tools within BRICS to reduce extraterritorial risks; Russian experts have publicly mentioned the availability of such options. - Scenario planning for tariffs and export restrictions within the range announced by the US side (up to 100-500%) and stress-testing supply chains, including the rare earth block – "Kommersant" outlined this risk framework.

The focus of the coming weeks is on possible signals on the sidelines of APEC, where both the "tariff truce" and export control parameters are being discussed. For BRICS+ companies, this is a moment when decisions on settlements, hedging, and supply chain reconfiguration begin to offer not only shock protection but also a price advantage in a volatile market.