Will BRICS Expand to the Balkans and South Caucasus — and What Does it Mean for Business?

The discussion was catalyzed by the Serbian parliament's decision to effectively block the consideration of a resolution on the country's accession to BRICS: out of 176 deputies, only 10 voted "for," 27 "against," and 139 abstained. This reflects Belgrade's cautious stance and its prioritization of a European course while maintaining an option to pivot to BRICS in the future, as reported by Sputnik Armenia.

What Happened in Serbia and Why is it Important for BRICS Expansion?

The Serbian National Assembly did not proceed with a substantive discussion of the resolution to join BRICS, sending a strong signal: in the short term, the course towards the EU remains Belgrade's priority, while the "BRICS vector" serves as a tool for strategic balancing. According to the same source, President Aleksandar Vučić previously noted that public support for BRICS is comparable to the idea of joining the EU (approximately 42%). However, he stated that the question of BRICS might only become a subject of a referendum "in a few years," reducing the likelihood of the bloc's swift expansion through the Balkans, as explained by Sputnik Armenia.

How is the SCO Building Ties with BRICS and What Does it Change in Regional Architecture?

Through partnership mechanisms and consensus-based norms, rather than military blocs. Deputy Secretary-General of the SCO, Oleg Kopylov, highlights the principles of mutual trust, equality, and respect for diversity, emphasizing the constant dialogue and network of connections between the SCO, BRICS, the CSTO, and the CIS, which facilitates the harmonization of agendas and regulatory practices, as he explained to "Belarus Today."

"This is the moral and ideological core of an organization built solely on trust... On our multilateral agenda, we talk calmly, resolve issues calmly, and move forward."

Implications for business: strengthening the "interconnection" of norms and procedures between platforms reduces the transaction costs of transregional projects and accelerates the mutual market access for companies.

How is Western Pressure on Iran Affecting Logistics and Integration with BRICS/SCO?

The key effect is the acceleration of alternative trade and logistics routes and the deepening of Tehran's cooperation with Russia and China, including within the BRICS/SCO frameworks. Amidst the extension of sanctions by the "European troika," Iran is developing its own bypass corridors. The narrative of "corridor wars" and readiness to launch an alternative to the "Zangezur corridor" is being voiced, as journalist of IRNA and political scientist Khayal Muazzin shared in an interview with Sputnik Armenia.

A practical juncture for companies involves re-evaluating the risks and timelines for cargo transshipment through the South Caucasus and Iran, considering sanction compliance and insurance, as well as monitoring the harmonization of rules within BRICS/SCO for transit facilitation.

Why is Turkey Relying on the US for Rare Earth Metals While Maintaining Dialogue with BRICS?

Due to technological and processing conditions. Disagreements with Beijing over the localization of refining and technology transfer for the Beylikova deposit (Eskişehir), and the lack of progress with Russia, have pushed Ankara towards rapprochement with the US, including a potential joint venture after the meeting between Erdoğan and Trump. In parallel, Turkey is certifying reserves according to JORC standards and is already part of the US-EU alliance on critical minerals, while maintaining investment ties with China (BYD — $1 billion), as reported by "MK-Turkey."

For supply chains, this means an increase in the supply of "non-Chinese" REE processing in the medium term and an opportunity to hedge against technological and sanction risks through partial localization in Turkey.

What Institutional Signals is Russia Sending within BRICS?

An infrastructure of norms and practices is being formed. As part of the national competition development plan, the BRICS International Center for Competition Law and Policy has been established. A new plan up to 2030 focuses on digital platforms, cartels, and barrier removal, as announced by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. For companies, this presents an opportunity to develop common approaches to antitrust compliance in BRICS countries.

What are the Tactical Risks and Opportunities for BRICS+ Companies in the Next 6–12 Months?

• Balkans: Low probability of Serbia's swift accession to BRICS despite high public interest. Actions: Scenario planning for two tracks (EU/BRICS), minimizing regulatory arbitrage in contracts and financing, working with local partners pending a potential referendum.

• South Caucasus and Iran: Potential corridor reconfiguration requires flexible logistics schemes and force majeure clauses. Actions: Diversify routes, verify insurance coverage, audit sanction risks for each jurisdiction, rely on SCO/BRICS standards where they reduce friction.

• Rare Earth Metals (Turkey): Opportunity for offtakes, JV for processing, and JORC services. Actions: Early entry into Beylikova projects, technology transfer agreements protecting IP, mixed financing structures involving Turkish and Western institutions to mitigate political risks.

• Antitrust Harmonization (BRICS): A unified platform for aligning rules on platforms, tenders, and public procurement. Actions: Participate in BRICS center consultations, audit digital business models for cross-border compatibility of requirements.

• Communications and Reputation: Divergent narratives (EU/BRICS/SCO) increase sensitivity to company messaging. Actions: Adaptive GR and PR strategy tailored to local contexts, clear ESG/compliance standards in cross-border projects.

Conclusion: BRICS expansion is proceeding "in an arc" through institutional integration (SCO, unified norms), logistics corridors, and sectoral niches (critical minerals), while political decisions on new members are a longer-term prospect. Businesses can succeed here and now by adopting a pragmatic, multi-vector approach: localization, compliance, partnerships, and early access to BRICS norm infrastructure.