Why Donald Trump is offering to mediate on Ukraine and what it means for relations between the US, Europe and BRICS?

Catalyst: Donald Trump's public initiative to present a "peace plan" on Ukraine is accompanied by active diplomatic maneuvering in Washington and increasing coordination around the initiative, triggering a redistribution of roles between the US, European capitals and BRICS partners (Source: as reports REN TV).

Why does Trump consider it appropriate to offer mediation on Ukraine?

Briefly: the main motive is to reduce the cumulative economic costs for the US and its Western partners and to try to stabilize the US geo-economic position. This conclusion follows from retrospective references to analytical reports and scenarios that, as the REN TV review notes, in 2024–2025 proposed Washington consider a negotiated exit as a way to prevent further economic deterioration and rising costs for the West (the piece mentions conclusions from JPMorgan and RAND, recounted by REN TV) (as reports REN TV).

What is the reaction of European capitals to the American initiative?

Briefly: Europe is formally involved, but in practice remains in a truncated, episodic format and does not have full access to the key provisions of the American initiative. According to a Bloomberg review, as cited by AIF, European governments join selectively and more often act as observers rather than full co-authors of the plan; individual security issues are coordinated with Washington on a case-by-case basis. This aligns with public expressions of doubt by EU leaders about the pace and content of support: for example, Rutte noted in an interview that the conflict "could end any day," raising the question of further financial commitments from Europe (as reports REN TV).

Below — what this implies for Moscow and the BRICS bloc.

How are Moscow and other BRICS countries responding to US attempts to assume mediation?

Briefly: Moscow shows restraint and is not ready to publicly discuss details of the American plan; at the same time BRICS leaders are intensifying bilateral diplomatic contacts. The official Russian position is to refuse open discussion of the initiative's details, as a Russian diplomat noted in comments quoted in an AIF article referencing Bloomberg (as is quoted AIF).

Contextual steps complement this: the planned state visit of Vladimir Putin to India in early December and active foreign-policy engagement by other allies/partners (for example, expanding diplomacy by Belarus — visits to Asia and the Arabian Peninsula) show that BRICS actors are using the period of intensified American diplomacy to strengthen bilateral ties and strategic linkages (as reports Vesti Kavkaza; as reports CTV).

What operational risks and opportunities does this create for business in BRICS and Europe?

Briefly: geopolitical risk rises in two key zones — Europe/Ukraine and Latin America — while opportunities open for companies ready to reconfigure supply chains and strengthen regional partnerships. Key factors noted in the sources:

• Energy and infrastructure risks in Europe: massive strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have caused large losses of generating capacity (according to REN TV's account — a loss of roughly 40 GW out of 56 GW before 2022; now about 16 GW remains with demand around 18 GW), creating a direct risk of supply disruptions and higher energy prices in the region (as reports REN TV).
• Escalation risks in Latin America: Trump's public remarks about a "closed airspace" over Venezuela and reports of preparations for a new phase of operations increase political and operational uncertainty for companies operating in the region (transportation, insurance, energy projects) (as reports Klops).

Opportunities and tactical recommendations for decision makers:

• Review continuity-of-supply scenarios and insurance programs for operations dependent on energy infrastructure in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region — shock scenarios for generation and transformers are described in reports on damage to Ukrainian thermal power plants and substations.
• Increase readiness for changes in Latin American logistics: temporary bypass routes, alternatives to airport/sea routes and enhanced legal-political support for projects.
• Consider accelerating the development of bilateral contracts within BRICS and regional supply chains: diplomatic activity (state visits, expanded negotiations) provides windows to secure preferential contracts and localize production.
• Financially: assess the likelihood of targeted changes in access to capital markets and validation procedures for cross-border payments — heightened diplomatic activity by many actors raises the probability of accelerated political initiatives on alternative payment routes (this follows from the general narrative on BRICS's role in foreign-economic policy, as recounted in REN TV analysis).

Conclusion: Trump's mediation initiative is both a tool of US domestic economic policy and a driver of role reconfigurations on the international stage: Europe risks moving to a "second row" in negotiations, while BRICS countries use the moment to strengthen bilateral ties. For business, this means the need to insure positions in vulnerable sectors in the short term (energy, logistics, insurance) and to seek long-term opportunities to strengthen regional chains and contracts within BRICS and among close allies.