What do the latest steps to strengthen BRICS ties mean for trade, investment and business risks?

Catalyst: in late Nov.–early Dec. 2025, a combination of political signals (confirmed leaders' visits, a series of bilateral agreements) and economic events (public forecasts of intra-group trade growth, court precedents involving Western contractors) strengthened a pragmatic economic agenda within BRICS and among its partners. For example, the upcoming visit of the Russian president to India was called by India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs a tool for "strengthening a special and privileged strategic partnership," as reports RBC; at the same time, experts in the wings of specialized forums forecast BRICS trade expanding to $750–800 billion by 2030, as reports PRIME.

How have key countries and business partners reacted to these steps?

Short answer: the reaction is pragmatic expansion of bilateral economic contacts and alignment of practical instruments to implement projects. India’s MFA is preparing a package of agreements for the Russian visit, emphasizing the continuation of regular contacts, as reports RBC. At the same time, countries such as Belarus are actively promoting export‑investment programs and assembly production in new partner jurisdictions — for example, Myanmar, where tractor assembly and pharmaceutical supplies have been agreed, as describes Belarus Today.

Working diplomacy is accompanied by commercial forecasts and market preparation: Russia’s trade representatives see growth in trade with Africa and especially Nigeria, where projected trade on the 2025 horizon is estimated at $30 billion, as reports Tatar‑inform.

What systemic consequences could this have for BRICS trade flows and financial architecture?

Short answer: an increase in intra-group trade and an acceleration of practical diversification of supply chains and financial routes. Expert assessments point to a realistic possibility of BRICS trade rising from the current ~$550 billion to $750–800 billion by 2030, provided procedures are digitized and documentation is standardized, as explained by Vitaliy Cherkasov for PRIME.

Growth in intra-group trade will be accompanied by pragmatic measures: creating unified digital document formats, a "virtual single window," and speeding up the review of project applications — steps intended to reduce transaction costs and the risks of implementing large infrastructure projects.

"Trade turnover among BRICS countries could grow from today’s $550 billion to $750–800 billion by 2030," — as quotes PRIME, citing Vitaliy Cherkasov.

Addition on regional channels: increased engagement with Africa (Nigeria — a major market for energy and agricultural products) and expansion into Southeast Asia through bilateral projects (for example, Belarus‑Myanmar agreements on tractor assembly and pharmaceutical supplies) broaden the geography and range of trade, reducing concentration risks in specific markets, as show news.by.

What tactical risks and opportunities does this create for exporters and investors over the next 12–36 months?

Short answer: opportunities — expanded demand and new production sites; risks — operational disruptions in large projects and evolving legal contours of contractor liability.

Key points:

• Increased project demand for infrastructure and machinery: under a scenario of digitized procedures and a "virtual single window," timelines for PrOK projects shorten; this is an opportunity for EPC contractors and machinery manufacturers (linked to estimates of BRICS trade growth), as records PRIME.
• Risk of disruptions to large energy and chemical projects due to legal disputes and sanctions: the Moscow arbitration court ordered Italian Tecnimont to pay more than $2 billion in a case over an unfinished plant in the Leningrad Region; the case files reflect risks of asset seizures and effects on projects in Kazakhstan totaling about $10.4 billion — a direct example of counterparty and transit risk for international projects, as details Kursiv.
• New end markets and logistics windows: Nigeria and several African countries represent demand for agricultural machinery, fertilizers, energy and pharmaceuticals; trade representatives’ forecasts foresee substantial growth in turnover — a direct commercial opportunity for exporters and investors, as indicates Tatar‑inform.
• Localization of production as a risk‑reduction tool: examples of the Belarus‑Myanmar package (tractor assembly starting in 2026, pharma cooperation) demonstrate a "microproduction + regional export" model that lowers logistics and customs risks, as shows news.by.

Short practical recommendations for decision‑makers in Russian and BRICS‑partner companies

Brief and to the point — what to do now:

• Review and update counterparty contract clauses on force majeure, sanctions and contractor retention; assess the risk of reprisals against foreign contractors and the feasibility of securing assets in friendly jurisdictions (the precedent with Tecnimont), as reports Kursiv.
• Prioritize localization of critical components: calculate the economics of assembly/processing in target markets (for example, tractor assembly in Myanmar) to reduce dependence on long supply chains, as shows news.by.
• Leverage the acceleration of BRICS procedure digitization: adopt interoperable electronic document formats and the "single window" approach when preparing project applications — this will shorten approval times and improve competitiveness, in line with the forum roadmap, as cited by PRIME.
• Evaluate African and Southeast Asian markets as reserve growth channels: develop niche offers (agricultural machinery, fertilizers, pharma, service maintenance) and plan long‑term investment programs that account for cultural and regulatory specifics, following trade representatives’ recommendations in Nigeria and the Belarus‑Myanmar example, as indicated Tatar‑inform and as reported Belarus Today.
• Prepare legal and PR protection scenarios in case of asset seizures or public court battles with foreign contractors; work out contract restructuring options and the use of local legal mechanisms.

Conclusion: geopolitical pragmatism is now being converted into economic instruments — procedure digitization, production localization and expansion of regional trade geography. For companies, this means new demand markets alongside increased operational complexity: winners will be those who systematize contracts in advance, localize critical chains and develop flexible legal scenarios.