How US and BRICS+ Steps Are Reshaping the Currency and Energy Order in 2026?

The catalyst was Donald Trump's statement at a personal meeting with Lula da Silva, expressing readiness to strike a "good enough deal" between the US and Brazil. This effectively opened a window for a relaunch of the trade and investment dialogue between the two largest economies of the Western and Southern Hemispheres, as reported by Regnum news agency. Simultaneously, signals of systemic dollar weakening are intensifying: the DXY index has fallen to 97, US public debt has surpassed $35 trillion, and influential economists are warning about risks to confidence in the American currency, as summarized by Belnovosti.

What Does the "US-Brazil Deal" Actually Mean?

This is an attempt to de-escalate the trade war and restart investment dialogue with the largest economy in Latin America among BRICS nations against the backdrop of prior tensions. At a joint press conference in Malaysia, Trump expressed confidence in a "good enough deal," and Lula confirmed the focus on expanding trade and investment, as conveyed by Regnum news agency. It was also noted there that in July, the US added 40 percentage points to tariffs on goods from Brazil (totaling 50%), which exacerbated relations and led to the exclusion of the US from a Brazilian civil society forum.

The signal is simple: Washington is testing targeted "resets" with individual countries of the Global South where potential benefits outweigh the political cost of conflict.

In a broader Asian context, Trump's team seeks concessions from China on trade and agricultural imports (including soybeans), "trading" tariffs and political packages, as described by "Khakasia" news agency, citing an "Asian tour" and negotiation objectives, outlining this.

How Are BRICS+ and Regional Alliances Reacting and Realigning?

Brazil is demonstrating a two-pronged approach: maintaining dialogue with the US, while simultaneously promoting the idea of settlement autonomy. In September, Lula reminded that "we cannot depend on the currency of one country"—this position was cited by Belnovosti in an article compiling international commentary.

Meanwhile, the EAEU is accelerating energy integration: the formation of common energy resource markets under unified rules has been announced as a tool for collective energy security and linked to a long-term declaration until 2030–2045, as reported by "Delovoy Kazakhstan," citing a speech by Olga Prudnikova, Director of the ECE Department of Energy.

On the "soft power" level, Moscow is counting on public diplomacy to strengthen coalitions and promote a multipolar order, as emphasized by President Vladimir Putin in his welcome address to an international forum.

What Are the Systemic Consequences for the Dollar in 2026?

The key risk is the acceleration of a multi-currency settlement model amid US debt pressure and strengthening BRICS+ financial autonomy. This increases the probability that the dollar will remain "first among equals" but will lose some of its former premium.

"The dollar stands on the brink of a systemic crisis of confidence."

— this assessment by Nouriel Roubini is cited by Belnovosti in a compilation of arguments and metrics on DXY dynamics and fiscal burden.

Supporting factors include: the dollar index falling to 97, and debt servicing costs in 2025 exceeding $1 trillion with the Fed rate around 3.5%—these parameters are also presented by Belnovosti in a single block of argumentation.

The "scissors" scenario between the dollar and the euro intensifies uncertainty: the US faces an "empire of debt," while the eurozone grapples with compromise policies, resulting in increased demand for multi-currency systems and backup "anchors" (gold, national currencies), as described in an overview column by Belnovosti, citing opinions of global players.

What Are the Tactical Risks and Opportunities for BRICS+ Companies in 2025–2026?

• Brazilian Exports to the US: Be prepared for tariff "swings" and quick project restarts. Revise contractual clauses (pricing, tariff sharing, force majeure) based on the dynamics reported by Regnum news agency.
• Settlements and Treasury: Expand multi-currency baskets and local clearing in "yuan/real/ruble" pairs, minimizing unilateral currency risk—this trend towards autonomy in BRICS has been noted by Belnovosti.
• Unified EAEU Energy Markets: Plan to connect to new rules for gas and electricity trade (legal harmonization, billing, IT integration), considering the frameworks outlined by the ECE.
• Hedging Reserves: Increase the share of "hard" assets (including gold) and diversified bonds—this line of defense for investors was conveyed in market reviews by Belnovosti, citing bank recommendations.
• Agricultural Raw Materials and Logistics: The redistribution of soybean flows in favor of Brazil opens windows for supplies, insurance, and port infrastructure in the South Atlantic, as described by "Khakasia" news agency following the "soybean story," outlining this.
• Public Diplomacy and GR: Participation in BRICS+/EAEU forums and industry platforms strengthens companies' negotiation positions and reduces regulatory uncertainty—the emphasis on "public diplomacy" at the leadership level of the Russian Federation was highlighted by Regnum news agency.

The takeaway for decision-makers: 2026 is not a "system collapse" but an acceleration of the transition to a multipolar financial and energy architecture. Those who proactively restructure their business's currency and energy frameworks for a "multiple centers of power" scenario, rather than awaiting a return to the old normal, will gain a strategic advantage.