How Trade and Technologies are Changing in BRICS+: Where are the Opportunities and Risks for Business Today?

The catalyst was a sharp redistribution of agricultural supplies: in July, India increased its meat exports to Russia by 33 times, to $21.2 million from $640,000 a year earlier. Since the beginning of the year, supplies have reached $62.8 million, up 2.6 times from last year, as reported by Gazeta.ru, citing the Indian Ministry of Commerce and RIA Novosti. Simultaneously, Russia boosted its imports of Brazilian meat to a maximum since 2017, reaching $67.6 million in August, a 1.6-fold increase year-on-year, according to Lenta.ru (reporting).

What Triggered the Shift in Trade Within BRICS+?

The trigger is the accelerated substitution and diversification of suppliers in the agricultural sectors among the bloc's countries, amid growing market capacity. According to Indian statistics, in July, total meat exports from India amounted to $401 million; the largest buyers were Vietnam ($81 million), Malaysia ($54 million), and the UAE ($37 million). Russia ranked seventh in volume, as reported by Gazeta.ru.

An additional marker of the structural shift is Russia's increased import of Brazilian meat to $67.6 million in August, driven by a doubling of beef supplies to $60.7 million (reported by Lenta.ru).

How Does the Raw Material Base Support This Growth – What About Fertilizers and Agrochemicals?

The feed and agrochemical base is expanding due to increased supplies of Russian fertilizers to BRICS countries: the industry estimates a roughly 20% growth in shipments, and volumes to China and India in 2025 could reach a record 5 million tons, as stated by Andrey Guryev, head of the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers (RAPU).

This means that the "fertilizers — raw materials — processing — export" vertical within BRICS+ is gaining a stable price and logistics advantage, reducing dependence on suppliers outside the bloc.

What Does This Mean for the Currency and Financial Environment — and Why is it Important for Trade Operators?

The risks of strong dollar fluctuations and the acceleration of the trend towards national currency settlements increase uncertainty in pricing and trade financing. In August, economist Peter Schiff warned of a possible dollar weakening amid US debt imbalances and discussed stimulus measures: he estimated the DXY index was declining year-on-year and could drop below 90 by December. This affects import conditions for importing countries, as outlined by Belnovosti.

"The collapse will come from QE and rate cuts, triggering stagflation," Schiff formulated the potential trigger.

At the same time, media reporting has noted signs of a "quiet drift": in August, the DXY index hovered around 98, while discussions within BRICS on national currency settlements intensified, as described by Belnovosti.

What is Changing in the Technological Infrastructure of BRICS+ — How are Companies Reducing Dependencies and Risks?

Companies and regulators are building a trusted environment for software development and operation: at Kazan Digital Week, representatives from VTB, T1, SberTech, Rosatom, and ISP RAS agreed on a pilot for criteria and performance indicators of a trusted open-source repository. Experts agree that critical requirements are approved by regulators, while development is driven by the professional community, as reported on Newslab.ru.

In the cybersecurity domain, Russia has tightened requirements for critical information infrastructure (CII) facilities and government organizations: since September 1, Law No. 58-FZ mandates notifications to the National Coordination Center for Cyber Security (NCCCI) and higher protection standards. The share of domestic information security tools in the public sector is approaching 100%, and for CII entities, it is about 82–83%, as noted by FSTEC speakers at BIS Summit, according to BIS Journal.

Where Have Tactical Opportunities for Business Already Opened Up?

• Indian meat processors and traders can gain a foothold in the Russian market, where July saw $21.2 million in supplies, and $62.8 million from January to July. Russia is currently only the 7th largest buyer, as indicated by data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce.
• Brazilian suppliers can increase their share in Russia: August shipments reached $67.6 million (a maximum since 2017), driven by beef, as reported by Lenta.ru.
• Russian fertilizer producers can monetize demand in China and India: the industry expects a record 5 million tons by 2025 and a 20% overall growth in supplies to BRICS, as noted by RAPU.
• Tech startups (GenAI, corporate SaaS) from Russia and friendly countries can participate in the MTS accelerator (online, 12 weeks) with investment opportunities; applications are open until November 15, as reported by KamchatkaMedia.
• Fintech and AI vendors can leverage the growing demand in BRICS+ megacities: trends for the coming years include no-code MLOps, multi-agent assistants, and embedded edge AI. The financial sector is a key investor, as emphasized by IT holding T1.

What Risks Should Managers Consider in the 3–6 Month Horizon?

• Cybersecurity regulatory and compliance risks: Law No. 58-FZ requirements for NCCCI notifications and CII protection levels are already in effect. Assess the maturity of cybersecurity processes and suppliers, considering FSTEC practices, as summarized by BIS Summit participants.
• Competition for volumes and pricing in agricultural deals: Vietnam, Malaysia, and the UAE lead in Indian meat exports; Russia is currently seventh. The availability of batches will depend on the activity of top buyers, as shown by statistics.
• Currency volatility and trade finance conditions: Amid discussions of Fed policy easing and the trend towards national currency settlements, analysts warn of increased dollar fluctuations, as described by Belnovosti.

Takeaway for Decision-Makers: In BRICS+, "physical" supply chains (meat, fertilizers) and the digital infrastructure (repositories, cybersecurity standards) are being synchronously restructured. This creates an opening for exporters and technology vendors but requires discipline in trade finance and regulatory risk management.