How the US-China Trade Escalation is Relaunching BRICS Finance and Digital Projects, and Where the Business Opportunities Lie

The latest round of tensions was triggered by the US announcement of 100% tariffs on imports from China, which has already coincided with a 15.6% decline in bilateral trade for January-September 2025. These measures and their market impact were reported in detail by, respectively, IA StolicaMedia as it writes and according to data from the General Administration of Customs of China as reported.

What Catalyzed the Shift and How is the US-China Trajectory Changing?

The catalyst was Washington's announced 100% import tariffs on China and a synchronized reduction in mutual trade, increasing the likelihood of a new trade war. This, including the planned start of tariffs from November 1 and accompanying export controls on critical software, is reported by IA StolicaMedia as it writes, with the 15.6% trade turnover drop confirmed by Chinese customs according to data.

“This is completely unprecedented in international trade…” — Donald Trump’s social network quotes his statement, as reported by IA StolicaMedia writing.

The immediate market effect, as described by experts, includes volatility in global markets, a dip in the crypto market and tech stocks, and a reduction by the WTO of its 2026 global trade growth forecast to 0.5%, as IA StolicaMedia notes.

How are BRICS Markets Responding: Non-Dollar Settlements and Asset Tokenization as Viable Alternatives?

The response is forming along two lines: expanding alternative settlement systems and implementing securities tokenization. However, key limitations remain in infrastructure reliability and liquidity. The creation of a BRICS settlement fund of $100 billion and the growing role of the yuan are discussed by Belnovosti writing with reference to industry sources; the Russian regulator's confirmed possibility of allowing foreign investors access to stocks via blockchain is reported by Invest-Forsight writing.

In practice, tokenization is intended to eliminate sanctioning intermediaries and even fragment high-value securities. However, market participants emphasize the need for "end-to-end" reliability of the chain and consideration of political risks, which also applies to integration into the global digital financial system, where liquidity issues are critical.

What Regulatory Steps in Digital Trade and ESG are the EAEU and China Preparing?

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) is building common approaches to platform markets and preparing an agreement on electronic trade, strengthening oversight of competition rules on EAEU digital markets. These priorities and enforcement were outlined in Tashkent by EEC Minister Maxim Ermolovich, as Profit.kz reports. In parallel, a "roadmap" for Russian businesses to work with Chinese ESG requirements is being revealed through direct dialogue with CCXGF, as IA Regnum reports citing Gazprombank.

Complementing the agenda, countries in the region are exploring AI governance frameworks. Belarus emphasizes AI as a tool for technological sovereignty and mentions the model law on AI for the CIS, adopted in April 2025, as Minsk News reports.

What are the Tactical Risks and Opportunities for BRICS Exporters and Investors in the 6–12 Month Horizon?

The main risks are a decline in global demand and supply chain disruptions; the main opportunities lie in redirecting trade within BRICS, digitizing access to capital, and aligning with Chinese ESG standards.

• Energy: China's gas imports in August amounted to 14.367 billion cubic meters (−8% year-on-year), and there has been no breakthrough in negotiations regarding "Power of Siberia-2"—terms, format, and pricing remain unagreed, as Lenta.ru writes citing Interfax and Reuters.
• Industrial Chains: Increased US tariffs on China are pushing Beijing to deepen ties within BRICS. However, the Russian market cannot indefinitely absorb redistributed flows due to saturation and recycling fees, experts note, as previously reported in market analyses.
• Capital Markets: Tokenization of shares and direct access for investors from "friendly" countries can reduce dependence on sanctioned infrastructure. However, the costs of reliability and liquidity are critical factors for pilot projects, as emphasized by regulators and industry stakeholders.
• ESG and Financing: Alignment with Chinese rating methodologies (CCXGF) opens access to responsible financing and simplifies entry into the Chinese market. This vector is supported by banks and issuing companies.
• Currency Risks: According to synthetic scenarios cited by industry press, pressure on the dollar may increase amid Fed easing and de-dollarization, strengthening incentives for settlements in alternative currencies within BRICS.
• Geopolitics of Technology: Amid the US-China technological race, the US is recognized as lagging in hypersonic missile deployment, adding strategic uncertainty and sanction/export risks for high-tech niches, as InoSMI recounts citing Bloomberg.

What Does This Mean for BRICS Companies' Strategies Right Now?

• Restructure Payments: Diversify currencies and settlement channels, factoring in discounts/premiums for conversion and clearing times.
• Prepare a "Digital Bridge" to Capital: Pilot tokenization with a priority on legal audit, cyber resilience, and liquidity plans.
• Calibrate ESG for China: Conduct a "gap analysis" of CCXGF methodologies, establish a verification process for green instruments and disclosures.
• Stress-Test Energy Contracts and Logistics: Consider demand volatility in China and uncertainty regarding new pipeline capacities.
• Manage Tariff Risks: Diversify sales markets and suppliers of critical components within BRICS and the SCO in advance.
• Monitor EAEU Regulations in E-commerce and AI: Plan for compliance with the future electronic trade agreement and data circulation rules.

In summary: accelerating regionalization of trade and capital creates an opportunity window for BRICS, but those who connect to new settlement and digital circuits faster will win—with a sober assessment of legal and infrastructural risks.