How BRICS is Reshaping Global Financial Architecture and What it Means for Businesses in BRICS+ Countries?

The catalyst is a combination of two trends: acceleration of dollar alternatives within BRICS and mounting global debt pressure. The IMF signals the scale of the latter: global public debt is projected to exceed the size of the world economy by 2029, as reported by Moskva 24, citing IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. Against this backdrop, experts and institutions within BRICS are promoting parallel currency and payment channels and national currency settlements, as noted in a TASS report on the column by Kashif Hasan Khan for SCMP.

What Exactly is BRICS Doing to Reduce Dollar Dependency?

The group is expanding national currency settlements, using lending facilities through the New Development Bank, and developing SWIFT alternatives. Simultaneously, a BRICS basket currency is under discussion. These mechanisms—from mutual trade in rubles, yuan, and rupees to infrastructure alternatives—are already in use, as described in a TASS review citing Kashif Hasan Khan's position. The topic of a unified "basket" currency ("bric") has also been a part of public discourse, from its basket structure to its potential to reduce the dollar's role in BRICS trade, as recounted by Belnovosti with references to previous statements and analytical center assessments.

Adding to this is the robustness of "hard" reserves: BRICS central banks actively increased their gold holdings in 2025, aligning with the logic of dollar diversification, as detailed by Belnovosti, citing World Gold Council data.

"A multipolar currency order, rather than the emergence of a substitute currency, becomes a more realistic scenario."

How are the US, India, and Markets Reacting to These BRICS Steps?

The US is intensifying tariff pressure on India; however, New Delhi maintains a pragmatic approach. Indian refineries are set to increase their purchases of Russian oil in the coming months, despite tariffs, as reported by Lenta.ru, citing Economic Times and Nikkei Asia. The capital market is responding with an expansion of tools for hedging BRICS exposures: SPB Exchange has launched cash-settled futures on indices for Brazil, India, China, and Saudi Arabia, as well as on the BTCUSD index, as announced by Buffett.ru regarding the launch of "SPB Futures".

Investor demand is shifting towards "safe-haven" assets—gold and bitcoin—amidst dollar and euro volatility, which is being linked in media discussions to growing debt and geopolitical risks, as described by Belnovosti, providing market benchmarks and investor opinions.

What Could This Lead to in the 1–3 Year Horizon?

The most probable scenario points to a multipolar currency architecture without a single "dollar replacement," but with a greater share of national currencies in BRICS settlements and an increased role for alternative channels, as argued in a TASS report based on Kashif Hasan Khan's position. Concurrently, the institutionalization of regional digital capital markets (asset tokenization, "digital financial assets") could accelerate—from liquidity to cross-border access—as analyzed by "Bankovskoye Obozreniye" (Banking Review) within the concept of "CFA Liquidity 2.0".

What are the Current Tactical Risks and Opportunities for BRICS+ Companies?

• Risk of secondary sanctions and tariff pressure in supply chains (especially for energy resources): This is being directly discussed by PRC experts in relation to purchases of Russian oil and gas, as reported by TASS, citing analyst assessments.
• Volatility in commodity discounts/premiums and changes in trade flows: Indian refineries are focusing on price and increasing purchases of Russian oil amid widening discounts, impacting margins and logistics (according to a Lenta.ru publication).
• New hedging and diversification instruments: SPB cash-settled futures on BRICS country indices and BTCUSD are available for operations in a regulated environment and allow for price risk management, as reported by Buffett.ru.
• Window for industrial cooperation at the intersection of energy and technology: Interest in "Rosatom" projects is noted not only in BRICS countries but also in Europe (Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Turkey), expanding the scope for consortia and localization, as reported by the portal "Smotrim".
• Regulatory "bottleneck" for digital assets: Without unification of infrastructure, P2P liquidity, tax logic, and cross-border regimes, the market for tokenized instruments will remain in the "sandbox," limiting real sector financing, as indicated by analysis from "Bankovskoye Obozreniye".

What Executives Should Do:

• Review contractual currency policies (payment currencies, clearing windows, USD discounts) considering the rise of national currency settlements in BRICS.
• Incorporate exchange-traded futures on BRICS country indices into hedging strategies, testing availability and costs.
• Conduct an audit of exposure to sanctions and tariff risks in the trade of energy resources and critical raw materials.
• Prepare a roadmap for asset/cash flow tokenization (CFAs, RWAs) and interaction with BRICS infrastructure.
• Diversify capital sources and partnerships (including energy and high-tech projects) amidst structural shifts in flows.

Conclusion: The architecture is becoming more multipolar and technologically advanced. Companies that adapt their currency, infrastructure, and market frameworks faster—from settlements and hedging to digital financing—will be winners, without waiting for the rules to be definitively set.