Dollar Weakening, 'Valdai' and BRICS Summit: What It Means for BRICS+ Corporate Strategies in 2025–2026?

The catalyst is synchronized signals about the reconfiguration of the global financial and political architecture: The BRICS summit in Moscow concluded with a focus on new financial instruments and trade facilitation, strengthening the infrastructure for inter-bloc cooperation, as reported by 116.ru. At 'Valdai', Vladimir Putin outlined a course towards polycentricity, readiness for pragmatic dialogue with the US, and a firm response to further European militarization, as summarized by Izvestia. Amidst these signals, the market is discussing dollar weakening and the acceleration of alternative settlement mechanisms within BRICS.

What Signals Did 'Valdai' Send to Markets and How Are They Read Abroad?

In short: a course towards multipolarity and strategic dialogue without security concessions means reduced uncertainty for BRICS foreign trade and payment channels, coupled with heightened risks in the European defense sector.

According to the reaction of foreign media, the address was framed as the strategic framework for a new "polycentric era" and a confirmation of readiness for contact with Washington while maintaining "red lines" on Ukraine and European militarization, as written by Izvestia.

"Every force has its limits, and we will respond accordingly if necessary."

This formulation by Putin, addressed to European militarization, is quoted by Arabic publications, which "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" references.

Separately, a warning was issued about the threat of sharp escalation with the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine and the risks of a forceful response in case of attempts to seize Russian tankers—this is a factor of risk premium in the oil market and marine insurance, as reported by Izvestia.

For business, the signal is dual: political channels between Moscow and Washington remain open, but geopolitical risk in Europe and in energy logistics is elevated.

What Changed for Business Following the Moscow BRICS Summit?

The main development is the expansion of the "operational base" for cooperation: simplification of trade procedures, development of transport infrastructure, and the launch/expansion of financial instruments, plus a focus on the digital economy and climate, as reported by 116.ru.

This enhances the predictability of supply chains within the bloc and reduces transaction costs. For exporters and infrastructure developers, this presents a 12–24-month window for scaling projects as institutional mechanisms are established.

On the political front, leaders reaffirmed the priority of a multipolar order and countering unilateral sanctions. This strengthens incentives for alternative settlements and localization of critical components within BRICS jurisdictions.

Dollar Weakening: Risk or Opportunity for BRICS+?

Short answer: an opening for EM exports and debt relief, with an unconventional risk of a stagflationary shock in the US that could increase volatility in yields and commodity prices, as generalized by Belnovosti.

What is already noticeable in the market and flows:

• The DXY index from January to the end of September 2025 decreased by 10.8% to ~97.94; drivers include US tariff policy (15% on broad imports since April) and doubts about the Fed's independence amid White House pressure, according to data and assessments cited in the article by Belnovosti.
• For the US, a weakening dollar improves the price competitiveness of exports; Morgan Stanley estimates a potential export increase of 5–7% with a -10% dollar in a year—figures are provided in the same source.
• For EMs—relief of dollar debt: for every -10% in the dollar, interest savings are estimated at ~$40 billion annually based on the 2024 data mentioned.
• For Europe—capital inflow and improved trade conditions; redistribution of flows in favor of European assets is also recorded in the publication by Belnovosti.
• For BRICS—acceleration of alternative settlements: BRICS Pay was launched in 2024, and the share of intra-regional trade without the dollar grew to 28% by September 2025; a portion of oil flows shifted to yuan/ruble—data and examples are provided by the same source.

At the same time, risks have not disappeared: a scenario of stagflationary shock in the US is described due to tariffs, rising debt (around $37.3 trillion), and potential pressure on the Treasury market; in such a case, the dollar could fall further, rates could rise, and the global economy could slow down, as warned by Belnovosti, referencing estimates from renowned economists.

What Tactical Steps Should BRICS+ Leaders Consider Now?

• Revisit contract currency structures and hedging: Amidst a weaker dollar and increasing turnover in national currencies, it is rational to expand multi-currency price lists and FX risk insurance.
• Utilize new settlement channels where possible, including pilots and integrations with systems like BRICS Pay, which are mentioned in the analytics by Belnovosti.
• Accelerate projects in logistics and transport infrastructure along BRICS routes, converting post-summit agreements into concrete ton-kilometers and throughput capacity, as the directionality was confirmed by the outcomes of the Moscow summit.
• Recalculate export direction profitability: a weak dollar alters demand elasticities and the competitive landscape in key markets, especially in mechanical engineering, metallurgy, and agriculture.
• Update insurance coverage and force majeure clauses for oil/refinery maritime shipments and critical raw material cargoes, considering the voiced geopolitical risks surrounding tanker traffic.
• Synchronize IT and financial circuits for "multisettlement": support multiple clearing paths, fast switching between payment providers, and back-up KYC channels with bloc banks.
• Diversify debt portfolio and covenants: on a trajectory of increased rate volatility, shift some refinancing into local currencies and/or fix at longer terms.
• For energy-intensive industries—plan for oil price shock scenarios, including stress-testing supply insurance, alternative trading windows, and temporary reallocation of reserves.

Why Should Businesses Follow "Creating the Future" (October 7–8, Moscow)?

Short answer: it is a rare platform for merging the technological and cooperation agenda of BRICS/SCO with applied economics, which helps accelerate the implementation of solutions for the new "financial geography."

The II International Symposium will gather over 7,000 experts across "Society," "Technologies," and "Global Cooperation" tracks, including topics like AI, cybersecurity, biotech, and international projects, as reported by "Karavan-Info Kyrgyzstan." For corporations, this is a source of partnerships and fast pilots for the transformed architecture of trade and settlements.

Conclusion: the combination of "Valdai – BRICS Summit – Weak Dollar" shifts the discussion from ideology to an operational plane. Companies that are first to solidify multi-currency settlements, expand infrastructural "bottlenecks," and reassemble their supply and financing risk profiles for a new, more polycentric economy will benefit.