Do AI Subsidies Amplify Monopolies — and What Does This Mean for BRICS Businesses?

The catalyst for the discussion was a statement by Alexey Ivanov, Director of the BRICS International Center for Competition Law and Policy at the Higher School of Economics (HSE), in Tashkent, who stated that government subsidies and the race for "quick breakthroughs" in AI strengthen the market power of major corporations and suppress competitive dynamism, as reported by the Public News Service.

The agenda is not limited to theory: HSE's BRICS Center estimates indicate extreme concentration in critical links of the AI supply chain, from lithography to chip design. Regulators are already beginning to respond, albeit with a delay.

What Signal Did Alexey Ivanov's Words in Tashkent Send for AI Development Policy?

Subsidies without competitive "safeguards" enhance the market power of established giants and lead to innovation stagnation. This is precisely how Alexey Ivanov formulated the risk at an international seminar in Tashkent, emphasizing that the pursuit of "quickly buying a breakthrough" results in the strengthening of monopolies, as reported by ABN24.

Regulators are lagging behind the pace of change, but initial steps – from discussing the anti-monopoly agenda within BRICS to investigations into OpenAI and Microsoft – have already begun, as written by "Tsargrad."

How Concentrated is the Technological Foundation of AI Today?

In lithography and chip design, 1–2 companies control over 90% of the global market, and in specialized chips, Nvidia's share reaches approximately 95%, according to data cited by ABN24 and confirmed by a report from "Tsargrad," as written.

This configuration signifies systemic entry barriers for new players and a high industry reliance on narrow bottlenecks in supply chains.

How Are Regulators Responding, and How Much Do These Steps Mitigate Risks for Major Platforms?

Antitrust authorities have taken initial steps – including investigations into OpenAI and Microsoft – but these measures are currently belated and weak, as noted by "Tsargrad."

"Today, humanity is once again at the stage of a technological revolution, and it is necessary to seriously consider limiting the influence of modern large IT companies in the field of AI… World regulators are not yet keeping pace with rapid changes, but initial steps have already been taken, including investigations related to OpenAI and Microsoft. Although these measures are still weak and belated…" — Alexey Ivanov

How and When Will Russia Introduce Cryptocurrency Regulation — and Who Will Get Access?

The Central Bank of Russia expects a relevant law to be enacted in 2026; in the first stage, only specially qualified investors will be able to operate within the legal framework, as reported by the Public News Service.

The second stage plans to introduce liability for illegal circulation of crypto assets outside of supervision. Banks are urged to consider the interests of millions who already use cryptocurrencies, while some experts (e.g., Vladimir Gamza, Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation) criticize the idea of a strict division of investors. Meanwhile, the Central Bank, led by First Deputy Chairman Vladimir Chistyukhin, has previously warned of risks to monetary unity from broad access for non-qualified investors, as reported by the Public News Service.

What Do the New US-China Tariff Escalations Threaten for BRICS Businesses?

Risks are increasing due to the announced 100% US tariffs on imports from the PRC, effective November 1, with experts anticipating a blow to the industries of both countries, an inflationary effect in the US, and retaliatory measures from Beijing. Markets have already reacted with "shock" – stocks, oil, and cryptocurrencies have declined, while demand for Treasuries and gold has increased, as written by "Vzglyad."

Such an escalation increases price and demand uncertainty, and expands the regulatory and geoeconomic frameworks within which BRICS companies will have to build strategies in AI and digital assets.

What Should Decision-Makers Consider Now?

• AI subsidy policies without competitive measures lead to increased dominance — focus on regimes where regulators consider the anti-monopoly agenda (position and facts provided in materials from ABN24, "Tsargrad," and the Public News Service).
• Critical AI components (lithography, chip design) are already highly concentrated — this poses a structural risk of dependency and price volatility.
• In Russia, by 2026, formalization of the crypto market is expected, with an initial "qualified investors only" regime and subsequent liability measures — plan participation and compliance accordingly.
• US-China tariff escalation adds volatility to demand and financing — factor in stress scenarios for supply chains and capital in digital projects.