De-dollarization or parallel infrastructure: what is truly changing for BRICS+ business after statements about an "alternative to SWIFT"?

The catalyst is a public signal about payment architecture restructuring: Russia is developing a financial messaging system with "friendly countries" as an alternative to SWIFT, as announced on October 1 by Alexander Novak. Concurrently, within BRICS, under Brazil's presidency, a cross-border payment initiative and the coordination of an economic strategy until 2030 are being advanced, as confirmed by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov.

What is the direct reaction to this move — and what is being said within BRICS about trust in the West and strategic autonomy?

The direct reaction is a toughening of rhetoric on financial sovereignty and criticism of Western practices. At the Valdai Discussion Club, former IMF Executive Director Paulo Nogueira linked attempts to legitimize the seizure of frozen Russian assets to the erosion of trust in the dollar and euro, as he stated in an interview with "Rossiya 1" channel. Russian economist Dmitriev also stated that growth centers are shifting towards India and China, and Washington's position is weakening due to negative rhetoric.

"This is not normal at all. I would call it piracy. And if this can happen, then anything can happen. It's not surprising that trust in the West as a whole, in dollar and euro-denominated bids, has virtually disappeared."

India also confirms its firm course on strategic independence: sanctions for the purchase of Russian oil will not change its approach, as emphasized by Arvind Gupta at "Valdai." At the institutional level, the course towards multipolarity is complemented by the development of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) and the establishment of the SCO Development Bank – these are depoliticized support mechanisms, as stated by Valentina Matviyenko.

Collectively, this forms a political and institutional demand for alternative channels of settlement and financing within the Global South.

Does this threaten the dollar: is the actual currency structure of reserves and settlements changing?

The short answer is no, in the near future; instead of a dollar "collapse," a parallel infrastructure is being built and diversification is occurring. This is indicated by an overview of reserves and capital flows, where de-dollarization is called a "mirage," and dollar dominance is projected to be stable for the next decade, as asserted in an analysis by "Belnovosti."

Facts gathered from July-August data show: the dollar's share in central bank reserves is 57.7% (about twice the euro's share of ~20%), the yuan's share in global SWIFT payments is about 2%, the BRICS summit in Rio did not launch a "single currency," focusing instead on BRICS Pay and local settlements; capital inflows into U.S. Treasuries alongside outflows from euro-assets also confirm "slow diversification without collapse," as follows from the same source.

In other words, the trend is not a "regime change" but rather an "expansion of workarounds" for settlements and the reduction of sanction risks.

What tactical risks and opportunities are opening up for companies from BRICS+ countries right now?

The immediate effects concern payments, technological cooperation, and market expansion.

• Payments and Settlements. Development is underway for a domestic financial messaging system and clearing schemes with friendly countries, and within BRICS, for a cross-border payment initiative, which reduces dependence on Western infrastructure and "freezing" risks, as reported by Alexander Novak and corroborated by Sergey Ryabkov.
• Technological Leap and New Ecosystems. Support for startups and tax incentives in BRICS and SCO countries, the unification of pilot platforms, and access to international expansion accelerate market entry for solutions and prepare the ground for "new champions," as discussed at the Moscow Startup Summit and as assessed by participants regarding the prospects of competition with American IT giants.

Latin America's interest in BRICS and the development of sectoral initiatives like a grain exchange are expanding potential sales channels and hedging currency and sanction risks, as stated by Sergey Ryabkov.

What does this mean for BRICS+ exporters and investors over the next 1–3 years?

The main takeaway is not to expect a dollar "collapse" but to use the parallel settlement channels that are being rapidly built within BRICS. The basic picture for the next decade is a gradual diversification of reserves while maintaining dollar dominance, as described in a summary by "Belnovosti."

From an operational perspective, companies should prepare for multi-channel payments (including intra-BRICS clearing), rely on new development institutions (BRICS NDB, the future SCO Development Bank), and integrate into sectoral initiatives by 2030, the progress of which was reported by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Conclusion: Business advantages will be gained by those who currently combine dollar instruments with BRICS infrastructure and Global South technological ecosystems, not by opposing them, but by creating a sustainable "dual-circuit" model.